Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The Value and Scarcity of Beverly Gray at the World's Fair

In this post, I expand upon what I mentioned about Beverly Gray at the World's Fair last night on Facebook.

I shared a photo of the book from my collection (first on the left) and the three extras that I currently have in my possession.

I wrote:

I mentioned in today's blog post that I have three extra copies of Beverly Gray at the World's Fair right now.  Here you can see them.  The first book is my copy, shown to indicate that the other three are indeed extras.  The second book is on eBay right now and is the second-lowest price of the books shown for sale online via BookFinder.com.  The third and fourth books are unlisted extras.

If you're looking for a copy of World's Fair, someone on AbeBooks has one available at a total cost of $73.90.  That's a lower price than you usually see.  Most sellers try to get $200+ for the bare book and $400+ if the book has a jacket.  Those prices are now too high.  The value appears to be starting to fall.  It will really drop off in five years (sorry, actually six but it's getting close) when the book enters the public domain.

As I expected, last night someone purchased the World's Fair book that I mentioned.  It was a good deal, and I'm glad someone got it.

What's going on with World's Fair right now is really just a crack in the veneer.  There are signs of the value going down.  The fact that I have been able to acquire three extras in the last year at reasonable prices is one sign.  That didn't use to happen.  That also has happened with Vicki Barr #15 The Mystery of Flight 908 in the last few years.  At one point, I had two or three extra copies of it.

20 years ago, the idea of having extra duplicate copies of these extremely scarce books was unthinkable.  The books aren't as scarce now.  They are still pricey for the most part, but the values are reaching the tipping point where we will soon see them fall off greatly.  More copies are showing up at reasonable prices.

This is because of the aging collector base.  Many collectors are downsizing, and the books are entering the secondhand market in greater quantities than perhaps they ever have.  This is causing the prices to decrease.

Furthermore, the aging collector base means that series like Beverly Gray will sharply decline in popularity.  Even now, Beverly Gray is only known to people in the series book community.  As the collector base ages, fewer and fewer people will care.  This has already happened with all of the very early series books.  Series like Poppy Ott, Jerry Todd, the Rover Boys, and the Corner House Girls still have fans, but they are mentioned very seldom in the discussion groups.  Most series book fans just aren't interested in the early series.

Even Nancy Drew and the Hardy Boys are not immune.  There is an obvious crack in the Hardy Boys veneer, since the Hardy Boys Adventures series hasn't had a new title since 2023.  Simon & Schuster has said that the Adventures series will have a new title in 2025.  Even if they do release a new title, the publishing gap isn't helping interest in the series.  What I saw the last time I was in Barnes & Noble was dire.


Nancy Drew is in a slightly better position than the Hardy Boys, but only because Nancy Drew has been more popular than the Hardy Boys for most of the history of the two series. 

Beverly Gray at the World's Fair will become public domain on January 1, 2031.  When that happens, the value will really fall off.  I expect in 2031 that the bare book copies of World's Fair will collapse in value.  The copies in dust jacket should retain more of their value, since some collectors will always desire books with jackets.

I have one copy of World's Fair on eBay right now, and it's the worst condition of my three extras.  It's not bad, but you can clearly see in my photo that it is in lower-grade condition than the other copies.  I have been gradually lowering the price.  I just went from $134.99 to $129.99 last night.  I may have to reduce the price a bit more before it sells.  A few years ago, a World's Fair book priced at $129.99 would have sold pretty quickly.

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